Oil forecasts rise as energy costs stay elevated

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that commodity price forecasts moved higher in May as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to affect global supply chains. The firm said its Materials Price Index rose 10.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and is projected to climb 19.2% in the second quarter, more than 25% above its earlier pre-conflict outlook.

The report noted higher forecasts for crude oil, refined products, and natural gas outside the U.S., with roughly 15 million barrels per day of oil still constrained by limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. S&P Global expects prices to remain elevated through the third quarter, even if shipping routes begin gradually reopening in June, because vessels, inventories, and processing flows may take months to normalize.

For investors following oil and gas investing, the update highlights how commodity pricing, transportation routes, and global supply conditions can influence energy markets. The report also pointed to broader effects across chemicals, resins, aluminum, copper, and steel, while readers tracking related market context can review Guardian Energy Partners’ recent coverage of Hormuz shipping and oil prices.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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