EIA narrows projected oil supply gap for 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its projected global oil supply gap for 2026 to 1.34 million barrels per day, from September’s estimate of 1.97 million. Rigzone reports that the October outlook forecasts daily liquid-fuel consumption of 102.43 million barrels against production of 101.09 million. The fourth-quarter gap is projected at 0.69 million barrels per day.

EIA also raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $105 per barrel, $14 above its September projection. Its assumptions include limited Middle Eastern exports and 4.5 million barrels per day of production remaining offline. Export-route constraints, including those affecting the East-West pipeline, and inventory withdrawals underpin its expectation of elevated near-term prices.

For 2027, EIA projects production exceeding consumption by 4.91 million barrels per day as alternative export routes expand. Most Middle Eastern output is expected to regain pre-conflict levels by midyear. Brent is forecast to average $87 per barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the fourth as inventories rebuild.

Source: Rigzone
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