Permian output estimates rise after EIA play update

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it revised its Permian Basin estimates after adding the Avalon, Barnett, Dean, and Woodford plays to its formation-level view of tight oil and shale gas production, while removing the Delaware and Yeso-Glorieta plays. In EIA’s March 2026 update, the change lifted its 2025 estimate for Permian tight oil output by 0.2 million barrels per day and shale gas output by 0.8 billion cubic feet per day compared with earlier figures.

Using the updated formation-based methodology, EIA said Permian shale and tight formations produced 6.0 million barrels per day of crude oil and 22.2 billion cubic feet per day of dry natural gas in December 2025, equal to 44% of total U.S. oil production and 19% of marketed U.S. gas production. The agency noted that the Bone Spring, Spraberry, and Wolfcamp formations still account for the large majority of Permian volumes, while the newly added plays represent about 5% of basin production. Those added plays have also grown quickly, with combined oil production more than doubling since 2022 and natural gas production rising 72% in 2025. For readers interested in the broader investment backdrop, Guardian Energy Partners also provides information on oil and gas investing and the tax benefits of working interest participation.